A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
